Reported by Michal Aurstad

Senior Adviser, Pacific Forum International

Editor, Comparative Connections

Deputy Director, Center for Rule Making Strategies CRS

Brad Glosserman is the author of Japan’s Rise as a Regional and Global Power: 2013-2023, as well as a Senior Adviser in the Pacific Forum International, Editor in comparative connections, Deputy Director of the Center for Rule Making Strategies CRS and a writer for Japan Times. Brad Glosserman came to Tokyo International University for the global dialogue event, but also joined Dr. Jeffrey Ordaniel for his classes prior to the event. Glosserman can be described as a man with a lot of knowledge and a good sense of humor accompanied by his direct personality. This led the dialogue to become an exciting talk about Japan and Japan’s role in the Indo-Pacific for the participants.

Brad Glosserman started off the dialogue by explaining how he and his co-authors wrote the book, before going more in-depth about the content such as the “Abe Doctrine”. Japan’s former prime minister Abe Shinzo put Japan in a more assertive position in the region. This was not an easy thing to do as Japanese politics have been hard to change. However, Abe was able to carefully navigate Japanese politics by riding along the sides of the political spectrum and making decisions when the time was right. Thus, being able to get through legislation that the Japanese opposition would otherwise be opposed to. Abe also sought to revise or enhance how the Japanese constitution interpreted Article 9 in the Japanese constitution. Abe felt like Japan’s security and article 9 narrowed Japan’s defensive capabilities and wanted Japan to permit Japan to maintain “de jure military forces”.

During his eight years in office, Abe was able to increase defense spending, further increased Japan-U.S. alliance and reformed Japan’s security establishment. Some examples of this is the 2014’s decision to reinterpret article 9 to theoretically allow Japanese forces to aid allies under attack. In 2018, the creation of a National Security Council that would allow more power for the prime minister in security affairs, and was recognized as “the most ambitious reorganization of Japan’s foreign and security policy apparatus since the end of World War 2”. Furthermore, Donald Trump had a hard stance on foreign military alliances and their spending during his term. Abe managed to divert Trump’s threats of pulling out U.S. troops from Japan, by bonding with the President creating a personal diplomacy bond between the two.

Despite his closeness with former President Donald Trump, Abe’s economic plans did not end well. The term Abenomics is not positively loaded and might be his “biggest failure” as prime minister. Economics is also what Brad Glosserman saw as a very difficult situation for the Japanese. How can a country in an economic decline, with a very aging population find the money to pay for the increase in military spending? Glosserman also did not see an end to Japan’s economic decline and said that the economy could collapse whenever. The students attending the dialogue were more focused on Japan’s role in the Indo-Pacific region and asked many questions about dealing with China, North Korea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea dispute. One of the students asked if Japan would join a potential war between China and the United States in case of an invasion of Taiwan. Glosserman believes that Japan will not enter the war, but give Maritime Domain Awareness in forms of information packages, harbor and support of repair and maintenance, and maybe secure passage for neutral ships. If Glosserman’s predictions are correct, Japan’s role in a war scenario would be extremely valuable to American and Taiwanese ships and troops. However, there are probably a lot of people out there that would expect Japan to do more, but Japanese people are probably worried that even that would be too much, and lead China to retaliate against Japan.

In conclusion, Glosserman delivered a terrific lecture for the attendants, and left a lot of room for a question and answer session at the end. Questions were mostly about Japan in International Relations, but Abe’s politics were well explained and the attendees got more insight into Japan’s domestic politics, and how Abe maneuvered his way through the system. Japan’s economy had a more grim outlook in Glosserman’s eyes which might be daunting for students and people wanting to work and live in Japan. Furthermore, a looming China-U.S. war with Japan supporting the Americans could further make Japan unattractive. Japan’s role in the Indo-Pacific is not getting enough praise, but according to Glosserman, they are doing more than we think.